Dairy – yaribu commodities

Dairy Market – Monthly Primary Drivers

Yaribu Commodities · Seasonality & Macro Context

Market / Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Milk	EU milk output near trough; NZ peak tapering	Early-season EU milk pickup; NZ tail-end	EU flush builds; demand lags	Peak EU flush; domestic demand stable	Weather impact on pastures; exports	Northern Hemisphere peak; pricing pressure	Summer heat limits yields; demand high	Lower fat/protein; export focus	Early signs of tightening flows	Seasonal decline starts	NZ peak milk production	Year-end demand; export loading
Butter	Tight cream supplies post-holidays	Cream availability improves	Spring milk increase adds cream	Peak fat yields; price pressure	Demand slows seasonally	EU intervention minimal	Ice cream demand steady	Heat limits butterfat content	Fat prices stabilize	Baking demand rises	Holiday demand strong	Festive demand + logistics bottlenecks
Cheese	Retail restock post-holidays	Lent demand dip (EU)	Milk flush lifts cheese output	Export focus to Asia	Grill season demand (EU/US)	Cheese stocks build	EU holidays dampen trade	Export interest to ME & Asia	Foodservice restocking	Seasonal consumption rises	Retail & pizza demand	Holiday consumption; export deadlines
SMP	Firm demand post-holiday	Weak EU demand; NZ finishing	EU milk flush pressure	Export tenders (Algeria, SEA)	EU intervention discussion	Price trough typical	Seasonal rebound begins	Export demand recovery	Lower production supports prices	Asian demand returns	Feed demand in winter	Shipments to Asia pre-holiday
Whey	Seasonal low	Demand steady; piglet feed uptick	EU whey volumes up	Animal feed demand	China import pattern key	Protein market stabilizes	Summer lull	Export activity strong	Protein demand strong	Recovery from summer lull	Food ingredient demand	Protein market peak into year-end
Macro / FX / Energy	Energy prices stabilize after winter	FX volatility; USD strength	Spring demand rebound	Feed cost signals (corn/soy)	Freight normalization	Global trade flows	EU holiday slowdowns	USD vs NZD impacts exports	Feed harvest outlook	Oil/fuel prices hit logistics	Trade policy expectations	FX moves + festive freight

Notes: EU = European Union, NZ = New Zealand, ME = Middle East, SEA = Southeast Asia. This table blends seasonal milk flow cycles, consumer demand, export patterns, and macro context (FX, energy, freight).

🧀 Dairy Futures Overview

Contract	Exchange	Symbol	Underlying Product	Contract Size	Price Quotation	Settlement	Notes
Class III Milk	CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)	DC	Cheese milk used in manufacturing	200,000 lbs of milk	USD per cwt	Cash-settled	Most liquid dairy contract; benchmark for U.S. milk prices.
Class IV Milk	CME	DK	Butter and nonfat dry milk milk	200,000 lbs of milk	USD per cwt	Cash-settled	Reflects milk used for butter and powder markets.
Butter	CME	CB	Grade AA Butter	40,000 lbs	USD per lb	Physically deliverable	Direct tie to CME spot butter market.
Nonfat Dry Milk	CME	GNF	Grade A Nonfat Dry Milk	44,000 lbs	USD per lb	Physically deliverable	Key input for milk powder and export pricing.
Dry Whey	CME	DY	Extra Grade Dry Whey	44,000 lbs	USD per lb	Physically deliverable	Byproduct of cheese; important for protein feed and exports.
European Skim Milk Powder (SMP)	EEX (European Energy Exchange)	SMPE	Skim Milk Powder	25 metric tons	EUR per metric ton	Cash-settled	Benchmark for EU powder export markets.
European Butter	EEX	BTRE	European Butter	25 metric tons	EUR per metric ton	Cash-settled	Tied to EU dairy fat markets.
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Derivatives	NZX (New Zealand Exchange)	WMP, SMP, AMF	Whole & Skim Milk Powder, Anhydrous Milk Fat	5 metric tons	USD per metric ton	Cash-settled	Reference to GDT auction prices; key for Oceania exports.